Covid 19 : Best performing 14 states of the week( 21-28 June 2020)
On 20-6-20 we had taken stock of all Indian States to see
their performance in fighting against Covid 19, in my bog titled कोरोना
कबतक ।
At that time, 9
states were showing very good tendency of recovery from Covid 19..
Other 7 states were chosen as likely to show good result in the coming week.
Today ie on 28-6-20 I made a review of these 9 good and 7 emerging good states and found that :
Out of 9 good looking states, only 5 could show improvement during this review week .Other 3 showed slight deterioration from their earlier
performance while 1 showed complete worsening of its condition.
Out of 7 promising states, 3 showed real improvement, 1
showed slight worsening and 3 showed gross worsening.
However, the good thing that came up is that 6 new states emerged as good
performers.
So, I will now give you the account of top 5+3+6= Top 14
best performing states and also details of those states who showed minor and
major deterioration in their earlier observed performances .
( A ) Top 14 best performing states
A-1 from old list of already good states
- Chhattisgarh :
Update : -28/6/2020
: Better
11 June saw a peak of active cases (971) which gradually
reduced upto 19 June ( 703) and then started rising. 2nd peak( 846
cases) came on 23/6/20. This peak was lower than the earlier peak.Thereafter it
again followed a reducing trend upto 26-6-20 ( 647 cases) thereafter heading
for another smaller peak . So it will come down in peaks and lows pattern.. There
is one good thing the peaks are coming not due to higher rate of new cases but
due to fluctuating rate of patients getting discharged. Since the number of
death cases is very low( 13 dead against 1937 recovered), there is no need to
worry about the final outcome.In other words reduction may be intermittent but
will definitely take place.
- Jharkhand
Update :
-28/6/2020 : Better
After 609 active cases on 20/6/20 it rose to 681 921/6/20)
but thereafter reduced continuously today at 603 cases.Here also, we find that
graph of new cases has not steepened;only the recovered cases graph has
fluctuated. It means that here also, the slow rate of reduction in number of active
cases, is not due to higher rate of new cases but due to fluctuating rate of
patients getting discharged. Since the number of death cases is very low( 12 dead
against 1724 recovered), there is no need to worry about the final outcome.In
other words reduction may be slow but will definitely take place.
3.Lakshadweep :
Update 28-6-20 :
better
Nil case
continuing.
4.Meghalaya :
Update 28-6-20
Better
Improvement continued. Total 5 active cases in entire Meghalaya.Death
figure still at 1.
5. Tripura
Update 28-6-20 Better
Considerable
improvement , active cases have come down from 508 to 260.But after this stage
the number of active cases is not showing tendency to fall rapidly.
A-2 : States earlier
identified as promising and really performed well
6. Assam
Update : Better
Number of active cases have increased slowly
but the good thing is that a peak is parent on 26-6-20. However , it will
require a watch of 3-4 days to accept it as a peak.
7. Bihar : better
Peak of 11 June can now be confirmed keeping in
view the continuously falling number of active cases.from 2828 to 1992 during
this period .
cases increased from 1366 to 1719. Retained in
zone of assessment since a peak is likely to form soon.
8. Uttarakhand :Better
rising
and falling struggling well No of active cases slightly increased from 809 to
827. Retained in zone of assessment.
A-3 : New Entrants in the list of best
performing states
9. Arunachal Pradesh ; Peak apparent , to watch
for 3-4 days for confirmation of peak
10. Chandigarh : Peak observed on 23/6/20 (90
cases) .Presently 87 cases. 6 dead with 335 recovered. Good performance.
11.0 Haryana :A non prominent Peak apparent on 20/6/20( 4946 active cases)
today come down to 4737 active cases.
12. Ladakh : sudden improvement after previous
time’s sudden rise in cases.In much better position now . No of cases have fallen
from 783 to 405.
13. Manipur : Peak apparent on 25 June .Need
4-5 days for confirmation
14. Sikkim : peak formed on 21/6/20 ( 53 cases0
Since then falling continuously today 38 cases.
B – States earlier identified as good but
showed Slight deterioration since last week : J&K, MP,Rajasthan
C _ States earlier identified as promising but
showed Slight deterioration since last week :Odisha
D - States earlier identified as good but
showed major deterioration since last week : Nagaland
C _ States earlier identified as promising but
showed major deterioration since last week :Karnataka,Kerala,Maharashtra
So let’s hope that top 14 will continue to
perform well in the next week also and some more will be added to their list.
Fantastic in depth analysis. Very informative and conclusive.
ReplyDeleteReality is- better performing regions have lower active cases. States with high rate of rise are performing, in irresponsible way - both people and govt. Control depends on these low performing high active case bearing states. Hope that good sense prevails.
Thanks Himanshu. The rising active cases number of is not a real threat.The high number of active cases is not always due to more number of new cases coming; the rate of coming of new cases is coming down consistently.The reason of rise is accumulation of in- bed patients. If patients take 16 days time instead of 14 days, there will be a temporary accumulation.Similarly if 14 days back there were very few admitted patients, today we cannot expect more number of cured patients.The only factor to see is that the ratio of dead to survived does not increase. The other thing to see is that out hospitals have enough beds available. All other things will be solved, it is only a matter of time.
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